3/22/2023 0 Comments Forecast bar ozone![]() Egorov, et al., “Positive Anomalies of Surface Ozone in July–August 2002 in Moscow and Its Outskirts,” Izv. Zvyagintsev, “Surface Ozone Anomalies in Europe,” Izv. Smirnova, “Ozone and Nitrogen Oxide Concentrations in the Surface Air of Moscow,” Izv. Beloglazov, et al., “The Role of Turbulent Mixing in Forming Surface Ozone Concentrations on the Kola Peninsula,” Optika Atmos. Maximum Permissible Concentrations (MPC) of Pollutants on the Atmospheric Air of Populated Areas (Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 2003). The forecast efficiency is demonstrated using the 2006 observational data from the stations of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences-Moscow State University and Mosecomonitoring State Nature Protection Organization. The most significant predictors for forecasting daily maximum surface ozone concentration with lead times of one to three days for Moscow are the forecast time (Julian day of the year), prognostic temperature, relative humidity, indices of the meteorological pollution potential of the atmosphere (MPP), and surface ozone concentration observed on the previous day. Compared with the persistence forecast, the above methods reduce the variance of the forecast error from 1.5 to 2 times. Statistically, the methods provide better forecast results than climatic and persistence methods. ![]() The methods use current ozone measurements and forecasts of meteorological variables and of synoptic situation. Two synoptic-statistical methods for forecasting daily maximum surface ozone concentrations are proposed based on the relations between surface ozone and meteorological variables in the Moscow region.
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